Kyoto Protocol

Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009, where dark green indicates the countries that have signed and ratified the treaty, grey is not yet decided and red is no intention to ratify.

The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at fighting global warming. The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty with the goal of achieving "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."[1]

The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of November 2009, 187 states have signed and ratified the protocol.[2]

Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called "Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by them, and all member countries give general commitments. Annex I countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping, but are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

The benchmark 1990 emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3) were the values of "global warming potential" calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report.[3] These figures are used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable CO2 equivalents (CO2-eq) when computing overall sources and sinks.

The Protocol allows for several "flexible mechanisms", such as emissions trading, the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation to allow Annex I countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing GHG emission reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges, projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I countries, or from annex I countries with excess allowances.

Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its greenhouse gas inventory. Virtually all of the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage its Kyoto obligations, specifically the "CDM process" that determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board.

Contents

Background

Main article: Global warming

The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature ("global warming") since the mid-20th century is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking (NRC, 2001, p. 3,[4] 2008, p. 2).[5] Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue through the 21st century.

IPCC (2007) produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global mean temperature might be.[6] Projections spanned a range due to socio-economic uncertainties, e.g., over future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels, and uncertainties with regard to physical science aspects, e.g., the climate sensitivity. For the time period 2090-2099, measured from global mean temperature in the period 1980-1999, the "likely" range (as assessed to have a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on expert judgement) across the six SRES "marker" emissions scenarios was projected as an increase in global mean temperature of 1.1 to 6.4 °C.

The scientific question of what constitutes a "safe" level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has been asked (NRC, 2001, p. 4). This question cannot be answered directly since it requires value judgements of, for example, what would be an acceptable risk to human welfare. In general, however, risks increase with both the rate and magnitude of future climate change.

Ratification process

The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for signature by parties to UNFCCC.

Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."

The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.[7] Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on 23 May 2002 when Iceland ratified the Protocol. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004 satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of 90 days.

As of November 2009, 187 countries and one regional economic organization (the EC) have ratified the agreement, representing over 63.9% of the 1990 emissions from Annex I countries.[2] The most notable non-party to the Protocol is the United States, which is a party to UNFCCC and was responsible for 36.1% of the 1990 emission levels of Annex I countries. The Protocol can be signed and ratified only by parties to UNFCCC, (Article 24) and a country can withdraw by giving 12 months notice. (Article 27)

Objectives

Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases.

The objective is the "stabilization and reconstruction of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."[1]

The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to establish a legally binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels by the year 2012. According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled their obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions established for the first commitment period (2008–2012) (see Annex B of the Protocol).

The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"

39 of the 40 Annex I countries have ratified the Protocol. Of these 34 have committed themselves to a reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) produced by them to targets that are set in relation to their 1990 emission levels, in accordance with Annex B of the Protocol. The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and two groups of gases, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons. The six GHG are translated into CO2 equivalents in determining reductions in emissions. These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

Under the Protocol, Annex I countries have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets, (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) - Article 4.1) that range from a joint reduction of 8% for the European Union and others, to 7% for the United States (non-binding as the US is not a signatory), 6% for Japan and 0% for Russia. The treaty permits emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.[8] Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping.

Annex I countries can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying emission allowances from other operators which have excess emissions credits.

38 of the 39 Annex I countries have agreed to cap their emissions in this way, two others are required to do so under their conditions of accession into the EU, and one more (Belarus) is seeking to become an Annex I country.

Flexible mechanisms

The Protocol defines three "flexibility mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I countries in meeting their emission reduction commitments (Bashmakov et al.., 2001, p. 402).[9] The flexibility mechanisms are International Emissions Trading (IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI). IET allows Annex I countries to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units, AAUs, or "allowances" for short). For IET, the economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the marginal cost of emission abatement differs among countries. Trade could potentially allow the Annex I countries to meet their emission reduction commitments at a reduced cost. This is because trade allows emissions to be abated first in countries where the costs of abatement are lowest, thus increasing the efficiency of the Kyoto agreement.

The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate emission reductions from projects. The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions (Toth et al.., 2001, p. 660).[10] The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I countries, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I countries.

The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex B countries in meeting their emission reduction commitments. The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured against a hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs); reductions produced by JI are called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits" because they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.

International Emissions Trading

The most advanced emissions trading system (ETS) is the one developed by the EU (Gupta et al.., 2007).[11] Ellerman and Buchner (2008) (referenced in Grubb et al.., 2009, p. 11) suggested that during its first two years in operation, the EU ETS turned an expected increase in emissions of 1-2 percent per year into a small absolute decline.[12] Grubb et al.. (2009, p. 11) suggested that a reasonable estimate for the emissions cut achieved during its first two years of operation was 50-100 MtCO2 per year, or 2.5-5 percent.

Clean Development Mechanism

Between 2001, which was the first year CDM projects could be registered, and 2012, the end of the Kyoto commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in emission reductions.[13] Most of these reductions are through renewable energy, energy efficiency, and fuel switching (World Bank, 2010, p. 262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are estimated in China (52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make up 15% of the potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).

Joint Implementation

The formal crediting period for JI was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20).[14] In November 2008, only 22 JI project had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between the Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and N2O emissions.

Details of the agreement

According to a press release from the United Nations Environment Program:

"After 10 days of tough negotiations, ministers and other high-level officials from 160 countries reached agreement this morning on a legally binding Protocol under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2%. The agreement aims to lower overall emissions from a group of six greenhouse gases by 2008–12, calculated as an average over these five years. Cuts in the three most important gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) – will be measured against a base year of 1990. Cuts in three long-lived industrial gases – hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) – can be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline."

National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and others, to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.[8]

The agreement supplements the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which did not set any limitations or enforcement mechanisms. All parties to UNFCCC can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol, while non-parties to UNFCCC cannot. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 3) in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. Most provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to UNFCCC.

National emission targets exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) in meeting their targets (Dessai, 2001, p. 3).[15] LULUCF activities are also called "sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate (IPCC, 2007).[16] Particular criteria apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.

Forest management, cropland management, grazing land management, and revegetation are all eligible LULUCF activities under the Protocol (Dessai, 2001, p. 9). Annex I Parties use of forestry management in meeting their targets is capped.

Common but differentiated responsibility

UNFCCC adopts a principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." The parties agreed that:

  1. the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases originated in developed countries;
  2. per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;
  3. the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet social and development needs.[17]

Emissions

See also: Greenhouse gas#Greenhouse gas emissions

Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population (Banuri et al.., 1996, p. 95).[18] Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[19] This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility for leading climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the countries that took on quantified commitments for the first period (2008–12) corresponded roughly to those with per-capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of carbon or higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the following section on the top-ten emitters in 2005).[20] Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG emissions.

Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere over time (IEA, 2007, p. 199).[21] Over a long time period, cumulative emissions provide an indication of a country's total contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Over the 1900-2005 period, the US was the world's largest cumulative emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions, and accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions (IEA, 2007, p. 201). The second largest emitter was the EU, at 23%; the third largest was China, at 8%; fourth was Japan, at 4%; fifth was India, at 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.

Top-ten emitters

What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP, 2007).[22] The first figure is the country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita:

  1. China1 – 17%, 5.8
  2. United States3 – 16%, 24.1
  3. European Union-273 – 11%, 10.6
  4. Indonesia2 - 6%, 12.9
  5. India – 5%, 2.1
  6. Russia3 – 5%, 14.9
  7. Brazil – 4%, 10.0
  8. Japan3 – 3%, 10.6
  9. Canada3 – 2%, 23.2
  10. Mexico – 2%, 6.4

Notes

Financial commitments

The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in UNFCCC.

Revisions

The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties (COP). COP6 attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).

In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to get Japan and Russia in as well by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.

COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the protocol.

The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from 28 November to 9 December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations Climate Change Conference.

The 3 December 2007, Australia ratified the protocol during the first day of the COP13 in Bali.

Of the signatories, 36 developed C.G. countries (plus the EU as a party in the European Union)agreed to a 10% emissions increase for Iceland; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,[23] much larger increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below Kyoto Protocol#Increase in greenhouse gas emission since 1990).[24] Reduction limitations expire in 2013.

Enforcement

If the enforcement branch determines that an annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program.[25]

Negotiations

Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing emissions (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[19] The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto moved to binding commitments.

At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 (a coalition of 77 developing nations within the UN) was able to push for a mandate where it was recognized that (Liverman, 2008, p. 12):[26]

This mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period. However, the large potential for growth in developing country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense (Grubb, 2003, p. 145-146). In the final agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions. The general assumption was that developing countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet their first round commitments.

Base year

The choice of the 1990 base year remains in Kyoto, as it does in the original Framework Convention. The desire to move to historical emissions was rejected on the basis that good data was not available prior to 1990. The 1990 base year also favoured several powerful interests including the UK, Germany and Russia (Liverman, 2008, p. 12).[26] This is because the UK and Germany had high CO2 emissions in 1990.

In the UK following 1990, emissions had declined because of a switch from coal to gas ("dash for gas"), which has lower emissions than coal. This was due to the UK's privatization of coal mining and its switch to natural gas supported by North sea reserves. Germany benefitted from the 1990 base year because of its reunification between West and East Germany. East Germany's emissions fell dramatically following the collapse of East German industry after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Germany could therefore take credit for the resultant decline in emissions.

Japan promoted the idea of flexible baselines, and favoured a base year of 1995 for HFCs. Their HFC emissions had grown in the early 1990s as a substitute for CFCs banned in the Montreal Protocol (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). Some of the former Soviet satellites wanted a base year to reflect their highest emissions prior to their industrial collapse.

Emissions cuts

The G77 wanted strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world of 15% (Liverman, 2008, p. 13).[26] Countries, such as the US, made suggestions to reduce their responsibility to reduce emissions. These suggestions included:

The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations of the first (Grubb, 2003, p. 148).[19] In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than 2005. Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the subsequent period.

The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – CO2, CH4, and N2O – with other gases such as HFCs regulated separately (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs. The most vulnerable nations – the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.

The final days of negotiation of the Protocol saw a clash between the EU and the US and Japan (Grubb, 2003, p. 149). The EU aimed for flat-rate reductions in the range of 10-15% below 1990 levels, while the US and Japan supported reductions of 0-5%. Countries that had supported differentiation had different ideas as to how it should be calculated, and many different indicators were proposed: relating to GDP, energy intensity (energy use per unit of economic output), etc. According to Grubb (2003, p. 149), the only common theme of these indicators was that each proposal suited the interests of the country making the proposal.

The final commitments negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises (Liverman, 2008, p. 13-14). These include an 8% cut from the 1990 base year for the EU, 7% for the US, 6% for Canada and Japan, no cut for Russia, and an 8% increase for Australia. This sums to an overall cut of 5.2% below 1990 levels. Since Australia and the US did not ratify the treaty (although Australia has since done), the cut is reduced from 5.2% to about 2%.

Considering the growth of some economies and the collapse of others since 1990, the range of implicit targets is much greater (Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 7).[27] The US faced a cut of about 30% below "business-as-usual" (BAU) emissions (i.e., predicted emissions should there be no attempt to limit emissions), while Russia and other economies in transition faced targets that allowed substantial increases in their emissions above BAU. On the other hand, Grubb (2003, p. 151) pointed out that the US, having per-capita emissions twice that of most other OECD countries, was vulnerable to the suggestion that it had huge potential for making reductions. From this viewpoint, the US was obliged to cut emissions back more than other countries.

Flexibility mechanisms

Negotiations over the flexibility mechanisms included in the Protocol proved controversial (Grubb, 2003, p. 153).[19] Japan and some EU member states wanted to ensure that any emissions trading would be competitive and transparent. Their intention was to prevent the US from using its political leverage to gain preferential access to the likely surplus in Russian emission allowances. The EU was also anxious to prevent the US from avoiding domestic action to reduce its emissions. Developing countries were concerned that the US would use flexibility to its own advantage, over the interests of weaker countries.

Compliance

The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties for non-compliance."[28] According to Grubb (2003, p. 157), the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the treaty are weak compared to domestic law.[19] Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the Marrakesh Accords. According to Grubb (2003), Japan made some unsuccessful efforts to "water-down" the compliance package.

Government action and emissions

Carbon emissions from various global regions during the period 1800–2000 AD

Annex I

In total, Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (including the US) managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).[29] In 2007, projections indicated rising emissions of 4.2% between 1990 and 2010. This projection assumed that no further mitigation action would be taken. The reduction in the 1990s was driven significantly by economic restructuring in the economies-in-transition (EITs. See the following section for the list of EITs). Emission reductions in the EITs had little to do with climate change policy (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).[14] Some reductions in Annex I emissions have occurred due to policy measures, such as promoting energy efficiency (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).

Progress towards targets

Progress toward the emission reduction commitments set in the Kyoto Protocol has been mixed. World Bank (2008, p. 6) reported that there were significant differences in performance across individual countries:[30]

KP Parties

According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL, 2009), the industrialized countries with a Kyoto target will, as a group, probably meet their emission limitation requirements.[31] Collectively, this was for a 4% reduction relative to 1990 levels. A linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 emissions trend led to a projected emission reduction in 2010 of almost 11%. Including the potential contribution of CDM projects, which may account for emissions reductions of approximately 500 megatonnes CO2-eq per year, the reduction might be as large as 15%.

The expected reduction of 11% was attributed to the limited increase in emissions in OECD countries, but was particularly due to the large reduction of about 40% until 1999 in the EITs. The reduction in emissions for the smaller EITs aids the EU-27 in meeting their collective target. The EU expects that it will meet its collective target of an 8% reduction for the EU-15. This reduction includes:

Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target, which includes a 1.6% reduction from CDM projects and a 3.9% reduction from carbon storage, contributing to a total reduction of 5.5%. In other OECD countries, emissions have increased. In Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland, emissions have increased by 25% compared to the base year, while in Norway, the increase was 9%. In the view of PBL (2009), these countries will only be able to meet their targets by purchasing sufficient CDM credits or by buying emissions ("hot air") from EIT countries.

Non-KP Parties

Emissions in the US have increased 16% since 1990. According to PBL (2009), the US will not meet its original Kyoto target of a 6% reduction in emissions.[31]

Non-Annex I

UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.[32] Most reporting non-Annex I Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income (p. 4). Most Parties included information on policies relating to sustainable development. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care (p. 6). Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their environmental legislation to include global concerns such as climate change (p. 7).

A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions could affect their economies. The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and export of fossil fuels.

Emissions

GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year 1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO2-eq. CO2 was the largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by methane (26%) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (11%).

The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO2-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122 non-Annex I Parties.

Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9 billion tonnes, without LUCF, total aggregate emissions were 11.7 billion tonnes.

Trends

In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).[31] For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990-2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.

Views on the Protocol

Gupta et al. (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem.[33] In these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.

World Bank (2010, p. 233) commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global emissions growth.[13] The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but by 2005, energy-related emissions had grown 24%. World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.

Some of the criticism of the Protocol has been based on the idea of climate justice (Liverman, 2008, p. 14).[26] This has particularly centred on the balance between the low emissions and high vulnerability of the developing world to climate change, compared to high emissions in the developed world.

Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town," and possibly because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions (Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 9).[27] In 2001, sixteen national science academies[34] stated that ratification of the Protocol represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases."[35] Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000, p. 5).[36]

Many economists think that the commitments are stronger than is justified (Grubb, 2000, p. 31). The lack of quantitative emission commitments for developing countries led the US and Australia (under Prime Minister John Howard) to decide not to ratify the treaty (Stern 2007, p. 478).[37] Australia, under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has since ratified the treaty. Despite ratification, Australia has thus far not implemented legislation to bring itself into compliance.

In May 2010 the Hartwell Paper was published by the London School of Economics with funding from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, Tokyo, Japan and Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., Tokyo, Japan .[38] The authors argued that after what they regard as the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, the Kyoto Protocol crashed and they claimed that it "has failed to produce any discernable real world reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases in fifteen years."[38][39] They argued that this failure opened an opportunity to set climate policy free from Kyoto and the paper advocates a controversial and piecemeal approach to decarbonization of the global economy.[40][41][42]

Successor

In the non-binding 'Washington Declaration' agreed on 16 February 2007, Heads of governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisage a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and hoped that this would be in place by 2009.[43][44]

On 7 June 2007, leaders at the 33rd G8 summit agreed that the G8 nations would "aim to at least halve global CO2 emissions by 2050". The details enabling this to be achieved would be negotiated by environment ministers within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in a process that would also include the major emerging economies.[45]

A round of climate change talks under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007) concluded in 31 August 2007 with agreement on key elements for an effective international response to climate change.[46]

A key feature of the talks was a United Nations report that showed how efficiency energy use could yield significant cuts in emissions at low cost.

The talks were meant to set the stage for a major international meeting to be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, which started on 3 December 2007.[47]

The Conference was held in December 2008 in Poznań, Poland. One of the main topics on this meeting was the discussion of a possible implementation of avoided deforestation also known as Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) into the future Kyoto Protocol.[48]

After the lack of progress leading to a binding commitment or an extension of the Kyoto commitment period in climate talks at COP 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, there are several further rounds of negotiation COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico in 2010, South Africa in 2011 (COP 17), and in either Qatar or South Korea in 2012 (COP 18). Because any treaty change will require the ratification of the text by various countries' legislatures before the end of the commitment period Dec 31, 2012, it is likely that agreements in South Africa or South Korea/Qatar will be to late to prevent a gap between the commitment periods.[49]

See also

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 "Article 2". The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php. Retrieved 15 November 2005. "Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner" 
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009-01-14. http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf. Retrieved 2009-05-06. 
  3. ↑ "Methodological issues related to the Kyoto protocol". Report of the Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1998-03-25. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop3/07a01.pdf#page=31. Retrieved 2010-02-13. 
  4. ↑ NRC (2001). "Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions". National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10139. Retrieved 2010-02-11. 
  5. ↑ NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change". Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, US National Academy of Sciences. http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/climate_change_2008_final.pdf. Retrieved 2009-05-20. 
  6. ↑ IPCC (2007). "3. Projected climate change and its impacts. In (book section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team et al. (eds.))". Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html. Retrieved 2010-03-18. 
  7. ↑ European Union (2002-05-31). "European Union ratifies the Kyoto Protocol". Press release. http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/02/794&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en. Retrieved 2010-02-13. 
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 United Nations Environment Programme (1997-12-11). "Industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2%". Press release. http://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/info/indust.htm. Retrieved 2007-08-06. 
  9. ↑ Bashmakov, I. et al. (2001). "Policies, Measures, and Instruments. Chapter 6 in: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. Eds.)". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/. Retrieved 2009-05-20. 
  10. ↑ Toth, F.L. et al. (2001). "Decision-making Frameworks.". In B. Metz et al. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm. Retrieved 2010-01-10. 
  11. ↑ Gupta, S. et al. (2007). "13.3.3.4.2 Flexibility provisions. In (book chapter): Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements.". In B. Metz et al.. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-4.html. Retrieved 2010-04-02. 
  12. ↑ Grubb, M. et al. (3 August 2009). "Climate Policy and Industrial Competitiveness: Ten Insights from Europe on the EU Emissions Trading System". Climate Strategies. http://www.climatestrategies.org/our-reports/category/17/204.html. Retrieved 2010-04-14. 
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 World Bank (2010). "World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change". The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. http://go.worldbank.org/BKLQ9DSDU0. Retrieved 2010-04-06. 
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Carbon Trust (March 2009). "Global Carbon Mechanisms: Emerging lessons and implications (CTC748)". Carbon Trust website. http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/Publications/pages/publicationdetail.aspx?id=CTC748&respos=2&q=global+carbon+market&o=Rank&od=asc&pn=0&ps=10. Retrieved 2010-03-31. 
  15. ↑ Dessai, S. (2001). "The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?". Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Tyndall Centre website. http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/content/climate-regime-hague-marrakech-saving-or-sinking-kyoto-protocol. Retrieved 2010-05-05. 
  16. ↑ IPCC (2007). "Glossary J-P. In (section): Annex II Glossary. In (book):". In Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A.. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team,. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland (web version). ISBN 9291691224. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/annexessglossary-j-p.html. Retrieved 2010-05-28. 
  17. ↑ "The full text of the convention". The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php. Retrieved 5 November 2006. 
  18. ↑ Banuri, T. et al. (1996). "Equity and Social Considerations.". In J.P. Bruce et al.. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. 
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 Grubb, M. (July-September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol". World Economics 4 (3): 143–189. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/rstaff/grubb/publications/J36.pdf. Retrieved 2010-03-25. 
  20. ↑ PBL (24 February 2010). "Dossier Climate Change: FAQs. Question 10: Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?". Netherlands Environment Agency website. http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/FAQs/index.html?vraag=10&title=Which%20are%20the%20top-20%20CO2%20or%20GHG%20emitting%20countries%3F#10. Retrieved 2010-05-01. 
  21. ↑ IEA (2007). "World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights". International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. pp. 600. http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1927. Retrieved 2010-05-04. 
  22. ↑ MNP (2007). "Greenhouse gas emissions of countries in 2005 and ranking of their per capita emissions". Netherlands Environment Agency website. http://www.pbl.nl/images/Top20-CO2andGHG-countries-in2006-2005(GB)_tcm61-36276.xls. Retrieved 2010-05-01. 
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  25. ↑ "An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Compliance Mechanism". UNFCC. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_mechanisms/compliance/introduction/items/3024.php. Retrieved 2006-10-30. 
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 Liverman, D.M. (2008). "Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere". Journal of Historical Geography 35: 279. doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008. http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/~dliverma/CV/JHGE07-17.pdf. Retrieved 2009-08-08. 
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 Aldy, J.E. et al. (September 9, 2003). "Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures". Climate Policy 3 (3): 373–397. doi:10.1016/j.clipol.2003.09.004. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/17261/thirteen_plus_one.html. Retrieved 2010-04-02. 
  28. ↑ Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, S. Maljean-Dubois, Synthèse, n° 01, 2007, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. [1]
  29. ↑ UNFCCC (19 November 2007). "Compilation and synthesis of fourth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the secretariat. Document code: FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6". United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600004368#beg. Retrieved 2010-05-17. 
  30. ↑ World Bank (2008). "Development and Climate Change: A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group: Technical Report". The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433. http://beta.worldbank.org/overview/strategic-framework-development-and-climate-change. Retrieved 2010-04-03. 
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 31.2 PBL (October 16, 2009). "Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target". Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) website. http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/COP13Bali/moreinfo/Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target.html. Retrieved 2010-04-03. 
  32. ↑ UNFCCC (25 October 2005). "Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. Document code FCCC/SBI/2005/18". United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600003578#beg. Retrieved 2010-05-20. 
  33. ↑ Gupta, S. et al. (2007). "13.3.1 Evaluations of existing climate change agreements. In (book chapter): Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. Eds.)". Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-1.html. Retrieved 2010-04-02. 
  34. ↑ the Australian Academy of Science, the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of Canada, the Caribbean Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the French Academy of Sciences, the German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, the Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society (UK)
  35. ↑ Joint academies' statement (May 18, 2001). "The Science of Climate Change (editorial)". Science 292 (5520): 1261. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/292/5520/1261. Retrieved 2010-04-03. 
  36. ↑ Grubb, M. (April 2000). "The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Appraisal. FEEM Working Paper No. 30 2000". SSRN. doi:10.2139/ssrn.229280. http://ssrn.com/abstract=229280. Retrieved 2010-04-02. 
  37. ↑ Stern, N. (2007). "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition)". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm. Retrieved 2010-02-25. 
  38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 Prins, Gwyn et. al (May 2010). "The Hartwell Paper - A new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009". London School of Economics. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/27939/1/HartwellPaper_English_version.pdf. Retrieved 2010-05-12. 
  39. ↑ Mike Hulme (2010-05-11). "After the crash - a new direction for climate policy". BBC News. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8673828.stm. Retrieved 2010-05-12. 
  40. ↑ Andrew C. Revkin (2010-05-11). "A Tough Observer of Climate Prescriptions". The New York Times. http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/a-tough-observer-of-climate-prescriptions/?ref=earth. Retrieved 2010-05-12. 
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  42. ↑ "Do You Heart 'The Hartwell Paper'?". Science Insider. 2010-05-12. http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2010/05/do-you-heart-the-hartwell-paper.html. Retrieved 2010-05-12. 
  43. ↑ "Politicians sign new climate pact". BBC. 2007-02-16. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6364663.stm. Retrieved 2007-05-28. 
  44. ↑ "Global leaders reach climate change agreement". Guardian Unlimited. 2007-02-16. http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2014683,00.html. Retrieved 2007-05-28. 
  45. ↑ "Breakthrough on climate protection". G8 Summit 2007 Heiligendamm. 2007-06-07. http://www.g-8.de/nn_92160/Content/EN/Artikel/__g8-summit/2007-06-07-g8-klimaschutz__en.html. Retrieved 2007-06-07. 
  46. ↑ United Nations (2007-08-31). "Vienna UN conference shows consensus on key building blocks for effective international response to climate change" (PDF). Press release. http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press_releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/20070831_vienna_closing_press_release.pdf. Retrieved 2007-10-12. 
  47. ↑ CBC News (2007-12-03). "UN climate change conference hails Australia Kyoto signing". Press release. http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/12/03/un-climate.html. 
  48. ↑ Walsh, Bryan (2008-12-04). "Green Banks: Paying Countries to Keep their Trees". Time Magazine. http://timeinc8-sd11.websys.aol.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1864302,00.html. Retrieved 2009-05-21. 
  49. ↑ UNFCCC (2010-07-20). "Legal considerations relating to a possible gap between the first and subsequent commitment periods". Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awg13/eng/10.pdf. Retrieved 2010-08-03. 

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